Executive Summary
Delivering independence via a new style Citizens’ Convention
A challenge to realise the hopes and dreams of the nation
The Scottish Government maintains a mandate for a referendum on Scottish independence from its victory in the 2021 Scottish parliamentary elections. Indeed, there is a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament. However, it is clear that the referendum route to independence is closed for the immediate future.
The Conservative Government agreed to a referendum in 2014 only because they believed they would win. The new Labour Government won’t agree to a second referendum as they know they would lose.
However, what is most dangerous to the union is the year-long (at least) democratic engagement process in the lead up to a referendum vote, not just the vote itself. This paper proposes that we can have that national conversation in a far more inclusive and productive way, ahead of a potential de facto independence referendum.
The Scottish Government doesn’t need a referendum to engage the people of Scotland.
The Scottish Government doesn’t need a referendum to engage the people of Scotland and it can do so in a way that creates a cultural shift, as well as an increase in ambition for, and confidence in, our nation. This can move independence support to unassailable levels. We can have that nationalconversation now and we certainly do not need Westminster’s permission to do so.
Scotland needs a new style Citizens’ Convention
We can achieve that with the creation of a new vehicle, a new style Citizens’ Convention, with a goal of ‘Creating a Better Scotland’ with a focus on a transition to ‘a Wellbeing Economic Approach’.
The Citizens’ Convention would engage the people of Scotland, civic Scotland, charities, campaigns, unions, churches, think tanks and more, bringing bringing them together to co-create a plan for a better Scotland. Some key civic organisations have already been approached and have indicated that they could not join a convention solely based on independence but could join a Citizens’ Convention such as suggested above.
The Citizens’ Convention can ask the Scottish people to help design a better future for their nation, to share their hopes, dreams and aspirations for a better Scotland. When we help the people co-create a shared story of a better Scotland – that will become Scotland’s national mission.
The Supreme Court has ruled that the issue of the Constitution is beyond the powers of the Scottish Government. Not only does that mean that Holyrood cannot legislate for or fund an independence referendum, it means it would not be able to fund an Independence Convention, a convention that considers independence as the sole constitutional option.
However, speed is of the essence and given the high probability of malicious legal moves to limit the Scottish Government’s ability to fund work on independence, we believe the Citizens’ Convention therefore should not set out to consider the constitutional issues around the implementation of the strategy for creating a better Scotland. That can be done by the independence movement and pro-independence political parties as a follow-on exercise. This means that the Scottish Government cannot be blocked from funding the Citizens’ Convention by Westminster and its role does not come under the Supreme Court judgement which limits the Scottish Government’s powers.
When we help the people co-create a shared story of a better Scotland – that will become Scotland’s national mission.
This means that the Scottish Government cannot be blocked from funding the Citizens’ Convention by Westminster and its role does not come under the Supreme Court judgement which limits the Scottish Government’s powers.
Once the plan for a better Scotland has been crafted at the behest of the Scottish people and civic Scotland, the challenge for all political parties is to explain how they can best deliver the plan. They will need to explain how their favoured constitutional settlement either facilitates or hinders the creation of that better Scotland, which now forms the nation’s mission.
Managed by a committee of trustees, the Convention’s conclusions will be voted on in the Scottish Parliament, in order to give official democratic credibility to the Convention’s conclusions.
The Convention’s finished plan will represent nothing less than the hopes and dreams of the Scottish people for a better Scotland. It will be based on the input of citizens and civic organisations, informed by global best practice. Believe in Scotland considers there to be zero possibility of such an ambitious plan being delivered by any constitutional option other than full independence.
If prioritised by the Scottish Parliament, the Citizens’ Convention can open the door to using the Scottish Parliamentary Elections in 2026 as a de facto referendum, with the highest possible probability of an independence victory.
It’s people not politics and systems thinking not soundbites
The addiction to political leadership within the independence movement is a huge problem and limits its progress. No political party can deliver independence on its own, nor a wellbeing economy. Both must come from the people because politicians don’t create waves, they ride them.
…the Citizens’ Convention will not be in the business of promoting policies or political partisanship but will be there to solve Scotland’s fundamental problems
Although public engagement will remain simple, social and democratic, the design of the Citizens’ Convention and how it operates and gathers evidence and opinion will be based on a systems thinking approach. This is because the Citizens’ Convention will not be in the business of promoting policies or political partisanship but will be there to solve Scotland’s fundamental problems and drive an exponential increase in our nation’s ambitions. It will do this by facilitating a more positive mindset change and socioeconomic paradigm shift.
Properly implemented, a Citizens’ Convention would be a better way to have that conversation than a referendum campaign, where adversaries take set positions, refuse to engage and fall into political party tribalism.
A parallel grassroots led independence campaign
Believe in Scotland, the non-party-political grassroots led independence organisation, will simultaneously implement a parallel campaign in support of independence. This will be focussed on increasing the nation’s ambition, matching our campaign to the values of the nation and cultural change, not politics and policies. It would have to be to be properly funded, through grassroots fundraising.
Goals for the Citizens’ Convention
The Citizens’ Convention will will seek to understand:
Independence support will rise during the process
- The hopes and dreams of the Scottish people and their frustrations
- Global best practices from national governments
- Evidence from knowledge leaders and academics
- Scottish regional and sectoral opinions, via a national roadshow
- The mood of the nation through detailed polling, online engagement and non-binding online voting on proposals as part of the Convention’s engagement process.
- To mobilise Scottish opinion behind the conclusions of the Citizens’ Convention.
Past examples of Conventions and Citizens Assemblies
Having looked at past exercises of this level, such as the Irish Citizens Assemblies and the Welsh Independent Constitutional Convention (as detailed in Appendices), we estimate the Citizens’ Convention will cost between £2.5m and £3.5m. Critically, because it will consider Scotland’s future rather than be a specific Constitutional Convention, the Scottish Government can fund it.
The predicted impact on independence support
Independence support will rise during the process, given that polling based on a Wellbeing Economic Approach, with a Wellbeing Pension at the heart of the independence cause, suggests 62-65% support for independence. As the Convention’s plan will almost certainly include such elements and much more, we believe the top end of that scale should be achievable.
A tight schedule
The Convention will operate through 2025 with initial reports and plans being published from August 2025 onwards. The full report will be published at the end of January 2026, leaving three months to campaign for a potential de facto referendum, with independence polling expected to start well in the lead.
…the next move needs to break the mould of constitutional politics. A boring political talking shop will not come close to delivering.
The Citizens’ Convention final report ‘Creating A New Scotland’, can be turned into a new prospectus for independence by the movement. Simultaneously before Holyrood 2026, all the decisions required about an independent Scotland should have been taken (by Scotgov and the independence movement) and there should be a detailed project plan in place, covering nation-building steps that are clearly communicated to the people of Scotland. This would include a plan for negotiating independence and gaining international recognition of Scotland’s statehood (the opposite of the Brexit implementation experience where there was no plan). Managed correctly, a definitive vote for independence is deliverable.
Conclusions
Given the constitutional straitjacket placed upon Scotland’s progress towards independence, the next move needs to break the mould of constitutional politics. A boring political talking shop will not come close to delivering. It needs to create a paradigm shift, to drive, within two years, a social construct change across the nation.
Our proposed new style Scottish Citizens’ Convention will do that.
Yours for Scotland,
Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp Founder,
Believe in Scotland