Conclusions and Recommendations
We are proposing a new style of Citizens’ Convention, rather than a strictly independence-only convention, as we feel that an Independence Convention would require a mandate from a national election, otherwise:
- Any financial spending or investment of elected politicians’ time will be open to challenge due to the Supreme Court ruling;
- Civic Scotland charities, unions and business organisations and others will be unable to join as it will be seen as a political convention, rather than one that is driven by the will of the people;
- Multi-level non-governmental international relations, which should be a major part of the activities, would be unattainable as the convention will be seen as ‘internal, political and opposed by the UK Government’ rather than ‘international, inclusive and democratically mandated and backed by the Scottish Government.
Scotland’s current constitutional impasse is unique (even compared to the Scottish devolution campaign) and so a unique form of convention is required.
When the writing is on the wall, when the polls say the Union is over, then Westminster will either offer to negotiate for a referendum or face a de facto referendum at the next possible opportunity (May 2026).
If the de facto opportunity were to be Holyrood 2026, that would require a pro-independence party alliance on the list (at least). The Citizens’ Convention approach would be the only way that victory could be confidently predicted, as such detail and vision would struggle to be communicated in a short political style campaign.
The Scottish Government should not accept any offer of a Section 30 referendum, as that is only a temporary transfer of powers and therefore accepts Westminster sovereignty over Scotland on the constitution. Because the Convention will not just be about independence, unionist MSPs Scotland’s current constitutional impasse is unique (even compared to the Scottish devolution campaign) and so a unique form of convention is required. 29 who wish to oppose its findings will have to vote against the dreams and ambitions of the people of Scotland.
Having carried out research into national engagement programme types in 2023 (see Appendices 2-3), our conclusion was that Scotland’s current constitutional impasse is unique (even compared to the Scottish devolution campaign) and so a unique form of convention is required. The Citizens’ Convention takes the best elements of each format reviewed and tailors the engagement program to Scotland’s current situation. The outcome will be a unique and radically ambitious vision for Scotland as an independent nation, a story that will appeal to the nation in the run up to the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary Elections.
That election most definitely cannot be about asking for a Section 30 (S30) order. Said path is closed for now and inadvisable, partly as it would undermine Scotland’s sovereignty by implying that Westminster is sovereign over Scotland when it is not. Secondly, it would lead to a collapse in the support for pro-independence parties akin to the result of 2024 UK General Election. Any talk of ‘asking’ demoralises believers and is inconsistent with ‘standing up for Scotland’. It is essential to point out the undemocratic nature of the previous S30 mandate refusals.
Following the Holyrood vote to approve the final Report of the Citizens’ Convention. The Scottish Government can demand the permanent transfer of the power to hold a referendum whenever the Scottish people desire (perhaps subject to a Northern Ireland style rule that unification referendums can take place no more often than every seven years). If that is not forthcoming, then a de facto referendum will be implemented where 50%+1 of the vote cast for pro-independence parties would equal a mandate for independence
The Citizens’ Convention would have prepared a new prospectus for independence, through its ‘Creating a New Scotland’ programme. Simultaneously, before Holyrood 2026, all the decisions needed to create an independent Scotland should have been taken (by ScotGov and the independence movement) and there should be a detailed project To be effective the Citizens’ Convention will have to operate separately from the Scottish Parliament 30 plan in place covering nation-building steps. These should be clearly communicated to the people of Scotland. This would include a plan for negotiating independence and gaining international recognition (the opposite of the Brexit implementation experience where there was no plan). Managed correctly, a definitive vote for independence is deliverable.
To be effective the Citizens’ Convention will have to operate separately from the Scottish Parliament and also be independently managed by a committee of trustees – hence the design of the Citizens’ Convention. However, a mechanism should be introduced to allow a free vote in the Scottish Parliament on the recommendations of the Citizens’ Convention, demonstrating that the Convention’s plans command majority support from elected members of the Scottish Parliament. This will give official democratic credibility to the Citizens’ Convention’s conclusions.
Thus the Citizens’ Convention will have a democratic mandate, traction with the Scottish people, and the independence movement, and will be capable of motivating campaign activities and changing Scottish public opinion.
Given the constitutional straitjacket placed upon Scotland’s progress towards independence, the next move needs to break the mould of constitutional politics. A boring political talking shop will not come close to delivering. It needs to create a paradigm shift, to drive, within two years, a social construct change across the nation.